The Rebirth of the SI Market: Anyone in the Mood for a Fat Margin?

I had a great briefing this week with IBM’s Dan Gisolfi of its Emerging Technology Group. I was able to clear up a few things. For starters, it’s not THAT easy to create a “long tail” micro situational app. Gisolfi says, “Today, it’s extremely hard unless you’re a programmer… and unless you know Ajax, Java script, and programming languages, you’re not going to create a mash-up.” But that’s where this IBM group is headed. With their web 2.0 class of tools– mash-up makers– ultimately, the high IQ guys and gals in IBM’s key installed base accounts will be able to create their own dashboards ad hoc and provision data across departments and groups without troubling anyone from IT at all.

Gisolfi and I waxed philosophically about the cultural trends that are driving Enterprise 2.0 and we agreed about the socio-cultural underpinnings. Now here is a guy who can fit squarely in both camps– traditional IT, wearing the IBM logo, yet can hold a respectable conversation on the latest in open source, or any web 2.0 technology. We agreed the new Enterprise 2.0 wave is not about technology. The technology is evolutionary and Gisolfi recounted many examples of initiatives IBM has been involved in for years that are now hyped as web 2.0. What’s different now, however, are the attitudes that eclipse the technology. He said, “Web 2.0 is a convergence of enablers… coming together at the right time, at the same time.”

We then talked about a possible rebirth of the systems integration industry– something I found intriguing. Gisolfi said, “For the IT guys, we’re not taking away work, we’re creating a new type of work. Instead of doing integration of monolithic applications, today, you’re going to create granular software components.” He used Sarbanes-Oxley as the perfect example of the need for a customized, daily mashboard. He described using a business analyst or consultant to define the data indicators and then pass it to a software guru to render it and provision it as a mashboard.

It’s at this point, I started thinking about the sweet-margin business of the late 80s: systems integration. I checked in with Graham Kemp, who tracked the SI market in those days. Graham said, “In the late 80s, SI margins were good… in the high teens… and FM (facilities management [outsourcing]) margins were fair (low teens). As the 90s came in, both dropped.”

On EDS’ Next Big Thing blog a few days ago, I read with some interest a post resurrecting the “I” word:

For a long time, the Fellows have been talking about the movement away from the Chief Information Officer to the Chief Integration Officer. The integration of process and information flow between and across the enterprise to enable greater flexibility is where all organizations need to be headed.

And as I just wrote recently to the head of analyst relations at CSC, before all outsourcers were called outsourcers, they were systems integrators. It might be time to ditch the losing battle in the ITO market, and start putting up recruiting booths on MySpace. There may be high margin opportunity introducing the Global 2000 to Enterprise 2.0.

Seismic Shifts in the Software Industry

I listened in today on NetSuite’s hosted Enterprise 2.0 and the Software Industry webinar featuring SandHill.com’s M.R. Rangaswami. I was amazed by some of the statistics in the presentation, but remember, I’m new to some of this stuff by five years. For instance, M.R. said Sandhill had done some research and is reporting that 90% of all software firms are now using offshoring for some element of their development. I also was surprised to hear that 80% of a CIO’s IT budget is already committed to maintenance before the year even begins… the point being a mere 20% is left for innovation. He also said Sandhill had counted over 500 Web 2.0 companies, but was quick to point out that, “None of these companies know how to make money.”

NetSuite, a SaaS app, and whose product looked very impressive, btw, said the webinar would be available on their site.

This issue about the IT budget is one where I’m not sure everyone is on the same Enterprise 2.0 page. A few days ago I was pestering poor, old Gary Fernandes (who is really neither) about this point. Gary used to trot out this slide back in the old days while I was covering EDS. It showed how, on average, the IT budget was a mere 10% of the operating budget of most corporations. As Gary was EDS’ Chairman of A.T. Kearney, and the BPO market was just beginning in those days, he was always interested in how EDS could get its hands on the other 90%. Enterprise 2.0 is Gary’s dream come true. The big opportunity here for tech companies is not with the IT budget gestapo, it’s selling directly to the lines of business that can produce real returns on small investments.

I tried to make this point to Vinnie Mirchandani today, who knows better. I know there will be a lot of push back on this issue. And, I’m a lover, not a fighter, but hey– it is a revolution whether you’re the revolutionary type or not.

Don’t count out the Big Guys…

A press release issued today from my old friends at EDS caught my eye. EDS announced the company built a secure, web-based portal for its long-time outsourcing customer, Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Massachusetts (BCBSMA). According to the release, EDS integrated several of BCBSMA's internal systems in order to provide convenient and simple access to a host of administrative information and provider processes to BCBSMA's network of 35,000 physicians and healthcare providers.

I was just talking yesterday to Larry Bissinger who leads analyst relations for EDS, making the point that veteran IT Services players and outsourcers are in an enviable position to bring next generation technology to the best customers. Take the BCBSMA relationship for EDS. I remember a DATAMATION column I wrote in June of 1994 where employees who were outsourced to EDS sued BC/BS and received $9M in a class action law suit. It was a landmark case at the time. EDS and BCBSMA survived all the spectacle and strain that must have put on their relationship, and the relationship has been renewed and extended a few times since the first deal-signing. Joe Fraser, the EDS client delivery executive, has been there for 15 years. With those roots, it's logical that BCBSMA would turn to EDS first when they want to investigate technology improvements. Granted, some of the improvements are already in scope of their existing agreements, but EDS is more than the sum of its contract parts. My point here is, we should expect to see innovation and business model reinvention coming from old, familiar places. Not everyone will abandon their preferred vendors for the "hot shop."

Trust, Communications, Relationship-management…

Frank Casale invited me to co-moderate a workshop yesterday at his Outsourcing Institute NYC Roadshow on "Outsourcing's Bad Rap: Playing Politics." Throughout the day, although the outsourcing market has changed so much over the past ten years, I heard the recurring themes of trust, communications, and old-fashioned relationship management. Buyers and sellers all have their war stories.

The day was excellent. A comfortable and informative series of workshops and presentations. OI holds a series of these workshops. If you're interested in outsourcing, definitely worth attending.

The World is Flatulent

So I went to my first outsourcing conference this week in New York after five years. If I hear one more reference to Mr. Friedman's book, I'm going to start to become disrespectful. Can we please move on to the next pop business fad? There was even an Indian offshore company raffling off the book as a giveaway at their exhibit table.

I have to admit the offshore phenomenon has thrown a wild curve into what used to be an apple pie, all-American business. When you got outsourced by EDS, CSC, or IBM, a Democrat might have lost their job to a Republican, but that was about the end of the political strife. It's a whole different ball game today. I'm exploring my conscience on this one. I haven't read Friedman's book, but I did break down and buy it this week. I hope I find some answers there; but my gut is telling me we're headed for a stormy season in rationalizing why this is a good development in our industry. Am I alone here? Am I missing the big picture?

I think I may be missing something because serendipitously, I sat at the conference (twice, in fact) next to this really well dressed, attractive guy. Now, please understand, really well dressed, attractive guys almost never go to outsourcing conferences (unless they work for a vendor like Oracle or IBM or something). The guy looked Ivy League or like he lived in Connecticut– you know the type. Glancing at his badge, I saw that he was from GAP (General Atlantic Partners), the venture capital firm. Of course, that made sense. When I saw him the second time, I had to ask him why he was at the conference. He told me he was there because one of his companies was presenting, Genpact. In fact, GAP has made investments in two large Indian offshore firms, the other being Patni. He told me he did work in Stamford and that he works with Jim Madden, who as you should remember, was CEO of Exult, another GAP company that was sold to Hewitt, which is a GAP company. Madden is now at GAP.

The bottom line is. I always take my clues from the smart money. If GAP is invested in India, then the offshore thing is not going away. I guess it's like I tell my 9-year old son when he doesn't like a particular outcome or development, "Deal." I feel like I'm reacting (albeit internally) the same way my 9-year old reacts.

Class Wars

There are a lot of rumors floating out there suggesting why the merger imploded. Interestingly, many are pointing the finger at EquaTerra– alleging that EquaTerra is unprofitable, has performance issues and debt problems on some major contracts. Now granted, I've been AWOL for a spell in this market, but I found it highly unusual that TPI, whose reputation has always been the epitome of inflexibility and well, ahem (nous parlons la vérité ici), arrogance– was looking innocent and victimized in some way. Huh? First of all. I have pretty solid information that EquaTerra is not unprofitable and there are no debt issues/repayments or credits being made to unsatisfied clients there. Whether or not there are performance problems on specific deals, who knows? Show me an advisor/vendor that doesn't have a dissatisfied client in the portfolio. That doesn't surprise me. What does surprise me is this spiraling negative spin in the market against EquaTerra. Where is it coming from? What is the motivation behind it?

As for as the intricacies behind the breakdown of the deal, our understanding (and we're pretty confident here) is that the deal finally broke down over distribution of equity on the part of the private equity class investors. For some of the terms and conditions to change the way some of the investors wanted it, TPI recognized it would create problems– they knew the combined company would ultimately fail if they moved forward under the PE investor's scenario. Remember, Monitor Clipper Partners (MCP) had the lion's share of the deal, as they are the owners of TPI (important fact). Oak Investment Partners could have equally been difficult, but certainly had a fraction of MCP's interest. Our calculated guess is it was MCP that was the final coagulant in the deal and forced the hemorrhaging.

So, in the end, as I was getting closer to what actually happened in that last week– leading up to what I believe to be an amateurish, unprofessional dis-engagement in the form of their hostile breakup release, I started feeling sorry for the principals of both firms. Even Denny. Who still hasn't returned my inquiries on this. On the one hand, it started getting very complicated to follow how these M&A transactions work with their preferred positions in the stock and their investor rights, etc. On the other hand, I started to feel like this was a private affair and I really shouldn't be meddling in their business. (Weird. I really felt that way.)

So what does it all mean? Not much. The question that remains is what will TPI (read: MCP) do now? Where will they go from here? TPI can't pull off an IPO on their own without more bench strength. EquaTerra is a young company. Their options are more varied. Their greatest challenge right now appears to be an image problem. That's fixable. The wild card is MCP. Interesting. What do you think?